Posted by: Rumah Sains ilma | January 14, 2011

Perkiraan Di Masa Lalu Yang Terbukti Keliru

Di masa yang lalu ada banyak perkiraan yang dibuat orang tentang apa yang akan terjadi di masa mendatang. Banyak dari perkiraan itu yang ternyata keliru. Beberapa di antaranya disajikan berikut ini. Mudah-mudahan kita memetik pelajaran darinya.

“Computers in the future may weigh no more that 1.5 tons.” – Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

“I have traveled the length and breath of this county and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” – The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

But what…is it good for?” Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

“There is not reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriouslyconsidered as a means of communication.  The device is inherently of no value to us.” – Western Union internal memo, 1876.

“Ours has been the first and doubtless the last, to visit this profitless locality.” – Lt. Joseph Ives after visiting the Grand Canyon in 1861

“We don’t like their sound.  Groups of guitars are on the way out.” – Decca Executive, 1962, after turning down the Beatles

“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the US market.” – Business Week, August 2, 1968

“Who want toe hear actors talk?” – H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

“Market research reports say America likes crispy cookies,not soft chewy cookies like your make.” – Response to Debbi Fields’ idea of Mrs. Fields’ Cookies

“We don’t need you.  You haven’t got through college yet.” – Hewlett Packard excuses toe Steve Jobs, who founded Apple Computers instead.

Airplanes are interesting toys, but they are of no military value whatsoever.” – Marechal Ferdinand Fock, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre

“No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going toe be caught napping.” – U.S. Secretary of Navy, December 4, 1941

“While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility.” – Lee DeForest, inventor

“The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.” – Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith’s paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)

“If I had though about it, I wouldn’t have done the experiment.  The literature was full of examples that said you can’t do this.” – Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M “Post-It” Notepads

“Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react.  He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in High Schools.” – New York Time editorial about Robert Goddard’s revolutionary rocket work, 1921

“Drill for oil?  You mean drill into the ground to try to find oil? You’re crazy!” – Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859

“640K ought toe be enough for anybody.” – Bill Gates, 1981

“$100 million dollars is way too much to pay for Microsoft.” – IBM 1982

“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” – Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872

The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon” – Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873

“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” – Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899


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